Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 35.370948 39.925264 45.276094 52.149012 60.934576 72.080890 8.782103e+01
2025-05-18 28.642350 34.049811 41.021443 51.060741 65.924302 88.715055 1.306346e+02
2025-05-25 24.792798 30.583870 38.581048 51.196913 72.452257 111.888499 2.126063e+02
2025-06-01 21.971567 27.827475 36.331385 50.731326 77.789157 138.086577 3.697265e+02
2025-06-08 19.814282 25.591359 34.306960 49.918822 82.109006 167.701311 7.375589e+02
2025-06-15 18.169612 23.839593 32.664558 49.244609 86.418090 204.770366 2.220770e+03
2025-06-22 16.898740 22.473381 31.388307 48.870003 91.309863 255.471469 7.531953e+06
2025-06-29 15.692267 21.064215 29.819032 47.521453 93.144900 301.466732 NaN
2025-07-06 15.288645 20.870166 30.286440 50.459795 109.074518 510.364325 NaN
2025-07-13 14.464549 19.905591 29.240875 49.830720 113.625730 689.343892 NaN
2025-07-20 13.867098 19.259512 28.691748 50.216229 122.396363 1129.936095 NaN
2025-07-27 13.362482 18.723149 28.277070 50.829345 133.008281 2382.907404 NaN
2025-08-03 12.843322 18.129327 27.700529 50.964117 142.420975 7956.516756 NaN
2025-08-10 12.269366 17.400333 26.784898 50.030758 146.234502 82835.513303 NaN
2025-08-17 11.853226 16.918797 26.314017 50.214919 156.895914 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.420382 16.378538 25.670236 49.787510 164.060146 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.995099 15.825956 24.951375 49.010146 168.640753 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.614566 15.332295 24.313546 48.360652 173.978625 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.285897 14.914385 23.800382 47.999152 181.714636 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.909187 14.390128 23.022031 46.690640 180.570579 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.859632 14.461416 23.525148 49.543374 223.449041 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.573199 14.077655 23.001387 48.933195 230.802847 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.368958 13.837514 22.777623 49.307362 252.155554 NaN NaN